Singapore's short rates sit 100–250bp below USD rates, yet unhedged carry produces a Sharpe of −0.05. The MAS crawling band pins expectations, fast mean-reversion kills the carry window, and overwhelming reserves make the regime unbreakable.
I scraped a massive corpus of guest participants' interviews and publications to build personas, used a multi-agent workflow to simulate debate engagements dozens of times, and clustered extracted arguments to build a "debate landscape" forecast.
Working through the variance of Ridge predictions, I noticed the connection between Ridge shrinkage and principal component analysis — and why an isotropic penalty on anisotropic data produces PCA's coordinate system.
Twelve parts in one page: OLS as projection, L² and expectations, classic identities, inference, GMM, asymptotics, BLUE, bias, IV and 2SLS, efficiency, and Gauss-Markov assumptions, with figures and a left sidebar to switch parts.